JANUARY 2024 REPORT
Reported JAN 5 by Prof. Damodaran of NYU, Interpreted by GPT-4, Compiled by Akash Deep
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INDIA SUMMARY
Corporate Governance
- High Insider Ownership: Sectors like Healthcare Products and Homebuilding show very high CEO and insider ownership, indicating strong control by those within the company, which could lead to significant agency problems if their interests are not aligned with minority shareholders.
- Institutional Influence: The Power industry has notably high institutional holdings at 18.63%, suggesting that these investors could have a significant influence on corporate policies and governance.
- Low CEO Holdings in Banking: The CEO holdings in the Bank (Money Center) and Insurance (Life) sectors are very low (<1%), indicating that CEOs may have less personal financial stake in the performance of the companies, which could affect their alignment with shareholder interests.
- High CEO Holdings in Software (Internet): This sector shows exceptionally high CEO holdings at 45.91%, suggesting a strong alignment of CEO interests with shareholder returns, and potentially more entrepreneurial risk-taking.
- Diverse Ownership Structures: Different industries exhibit varied ownership structures, with some, like Cable TV, having a high percentage of corporate holdings (53.19%) and others, like the Software (Internet) and Retail (Building Supply), showing high insider holdings (62.43% and 50.94%, respectively).
- Low Institutional Holdings in Semiconductors: The Semiconductor industry has very low institutional holdings (2.05%), which might imply less oversight and influence from institutional investors on corporate policies.
- Sector-Specific Trends: Certain industries, such as Tobacco and Publishing & Newspapers, have very high corporate holdings (49.65% and 47.44%, respectively), which may indicate a consolidation of control within a smaller group of corporate entities.
- Overall Market View: The total market shows an average CEO holding of 18.04% and institutional holding of 10.41%, with insider holdings averaging 39.38%. This suggests a moderate level of CEO stake and a strong presence of insider ownership across the market.
- Absence of Data: Some industries such as Utility (Water) and Reinsurance have '0.00%' holdings in various categories, which could be due to a lack of data availability or the non-existence of firms in those categories for the specific market.
- Risk of Concentrated Control: Industries with high insider holdings, like Healthcare Products (67.09%) and Software (Internet) (62.43%), may face risks related to concentrated control, where decisions could be made that benefit insiders over minority shareholders.
Discount Rate Estimation
Levered and Unlevered Betas by Industry: To estimate pure play betas by business, to use in estimating a bottom up beta for a project or a company.
- Variation in Betas: There's a wide range of beta values across industries, indicating different levels of systematic risk. The Semiconductor industry has a high beta, which suggests high volatility compared to the market, while the Food Processing industry has a lower beta, indicating less volatility.
- Debt to Equity Ratios: The Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) industry has a remarkably high Debt/Equity ratio, which could significantly affect the cost of capital calculations due to the risk associated with high leverage.
- Effective Tax Rates: Effective tax rates vary across industries, impacting the unlevered beta calculation. Industries with lower effective tax rates will have a smaller tax shield from debt, influencing the cost of capital.
- Cash Holdings: Industries with higher cash/firm value ratios, like Cable TV and Banks (Money Center), might be considered less risky when cash is factored out, as indicated by the adjusted unlevered beta for cash.
- HiLo Risk: This metric, which provides a non-parametric measure of price risk, is notably high in the Green & Renewable Energy and Precious Metals sectors, indicating large price swings within the year.
- Standard Deviation in Equity: Standard deviation of equity, a measure of total risk, is particularly high in sectors like Aerospace/Defense and Education, suggesting that stock prices in these sectors are quite volatile.
- Standard Deviation in Operating Income: This metric provides insight into the operational risk of industries. For instance, the Restaurant/Dining and Healthcare Products sectors show high variation in operating income, which may indicate less predictability in earnings.
- Negative Betas: Some industries, such as Homebuilding and Software (Internet), exhibit negative betas in certain years, which is unusual as it implies that the stock moves inversely to the overall market.
- Industry-Specific Trends: The Apparel industry shows a low beta, indicating stability, whereas the Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) sector has a higher beta, implying higher market risk.
Total Beta By Industry Sector
Betas adjusted to reflect a firm's total exposure to risk rather than just the market risk component. It is a function of the market beta and the portion of the total risk that is market risk. These betas might provide better estimates of costs of equity for undiversified owners of private businesses.
- High Total Beta: Certain industries like Precious Metals and Reinsurance have very high total betas, indicating a significant risk if an investor’s portfolio is concentrated solely in these sectors.
- Low Correlation with Market: Some industries have a low average correlation with the market, such as the Healthcare Support Services and Software (Internet), which suggests that their stock movements are less in sync with the overall market.
- Negative Beta: The Homebuilding industry shows a negative beta, indicating that it moves inversely to the market. However, the total beta is not calculated, which would be particularly relevant for an undiversified investor.
- Variation in Levered and Unlevered Betas: There are differences between the average levered and unlevered betas across industries. For instance, Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) has a lower unlevered beta compared to its levered beta, reflecting the impact of financial leverage.
- High Risk in Technology: The Semiconductor industry shows a high levered beta and a high total unlevered beta, highlighting the significant risk associated with this sector.
- Stability in Consumer Goods: Industries like Food Processing and Beverage (Soft) exhibit lower total betas, which may be indicative of their stability and lower risk profile for undiversified investors.
- Risk Adjustment for Cash: The correction for cash in the beta calculation is a critical step, as it adjusts for the risk-free portion of the firm's assets, providing a more accurate measure of the business-specific risk.
Costs of Capital by Industry Sector
Costs of equity, costs of debt, market debt ratios and costs of capital by industrial grouping.
- Cost of Equity: Ranges from as low as 3.84% in Software (Internet) to as high as 19.90% in Insurance (General), reflecting the varying risk premiums associated with each industry.
- After-tax Cost of Debt: The after-tax cost of debt is consistent across many industries at approximately 5.23%, due to a standardized marginal tax rate of 30% applied to the pre-tax cost of borrowing.
- Cost of Capital: The overall cost of capital, which is the weighted average of the cost of equity and after-tax cost of debt, varies significantly, with Software (Internet) at the low end at 3.89% and Precious Metals at the high end at 20.54%.
- Debt Ratios (D/(D+E)): There's a wide range in the proportion of debt financing used across industries, from nearly 0% in Reinsurance to over 60% in Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance), impacting the cost of capital due to the varying costs of debt.
- Local Currency Conversion: The dataset also allows for the conversion of the cost of capital to local currency, with an expected inflation rate in Rupees at 5.00% and in US dollars at 3.00%.
- Beta: The beta values, which measure the volatility of an industry relative to the market, range from negative values in Software (Internet) to over 2 in Insurance (General), indicating a wide variance in market risk.
Tax rate by Industry
Average efective tax rate for all firms in each sector ,as well as for only money making firms.
- High Variability in Effective Tax Rates: There's a wide range in Effective Tax Rates across different industries, from as low as 0% for some industries to over 30% for others, reflecting the diverse nature of tax obligations depending on industry specifics.
- Discrepancy Between Cash and Accrual Taxes: Several industries show a significant difference between cash taxes paid and accrual taxes, indicating timing differences in tax payments or differences in tax accounting methods.
- Agriculture's Unusually High Cash Tax Rate: Farming/Agriculture shows an extraordinarily high Cash Tax Rate (2759.19% average across money-making companies), which likely indicates an anomaly or error in data.
- Financial Sector's High Tax Burden: The Money Center Banks and Regional Banks have high Effective Tax Rates, with Money Center Banks having a significant Cash Tax Rate of 27.50%.
- Low Tax Burden on Technology and Telecommunications: Sectors like Computer Services and Telecom Services have relatively lower Effective Tax Rates compared to industries like Financial Services and Healthcare.
- High Tax Rates in Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals: Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology industries face high Effective and Cash Tax Rates, indicating a significant tax burden in these sectors.
- Energy Sector's Varied Tax Picture: The Oil/Gas and Coal sectors show varied Effective and Cash Tax Rates, reflecting the complex tax structure in energy sectors.
- Retail Sector's Mixed Tax Rates: The Retail sector exhibits a mixed picture, with some subsectors like Automotive and Grocery having moderate tax rates, while others like Special Lines show high Cash Tax Rates.
- Software and Entertainment's Low Tax Payments: Software (both Entertainment and System & Application) industries show lower tax payments, both in accrual and cash terms, compared to their income levels.
- Significant Cash Over Accrual Taxes in Some Industries: Industries like Air Transport and Aerospace/Defense show cash taxes significantly higher than accrual taxes, which might indicate recent changes in tax regulations affecting these industries or payment of back taxes.
Dollar Value Meaures by Industry
Aggregated dollar values in millions of US$ of market capitalization in recent periods, with percentage changes in aggregate capitalziation, by industry.
- Market Capitalization and Enterprise Value: The Total Market has an aggregated market capitalization of approximately $4.39 trillion and an enterprise value of around $5.36 trillion, indicating significant leverage used by companies.
- Invested Capital and Debt: The Total Market has an invested capital of approximately $2.18 trillion and a total debt of around $1.31 trillion. The high total debt suggests that industries are heavily utilizing debt financing.
- Financial Sector's Large Size: The Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) sector shows a substantial enterprise value of about $691.84 billion, highlighting the large scale of this industry within the market.
- Technology Sector's Market Value: The Computer Services industry exhibits a high market cap of approximately $399.76 billion, signifying its substantial market value and influence.
- Revenues: Total revenues for the market amount to approximately $1.86 trillion, with the Oilfield Services/Equipment industry having the highest revenue at $324.33 billion, signifying the importance of energy and resources industries.
- Gross Profit Margins: Gross profits total around $693.95 billion, with the Food Processing sector contributing approximately $11.51 billion, indicating the sector's ability to maintain profit after the cost of goods sold.
- EBITDA and Operating Income: The EBITDA for the Total Market is around $235.77 billion, with the Oilfield Services/Equipment industry contributing the most at $36.70 billion. This suggests robust operational cash flows in this sector.
- Net Income Disparities: The Total Market's net income is approximately $163.98 billion. However, there are disparities, such as the Telecom Services industry showing a net loss, indicating that some sectors are underperforming in profitability.
- Negative Book Equity: Certain industries like Air Transport and Insurance (General) show negative book equity, which may suggest accumulated losses or aggressive share buybacks.
- Age of Firms and Market Cap Correlation: There's no clear correlation between the average age of firms and market cap or enterprise value; older industries like Tobacco have high market caps, while newer sectors like Software (Entertainment) also show significant market values.
Market Capitalization by Industry
Aggregated dollar values in millions of US $ for market capitalization/enterprise value, as well as operating and profitability measures - revenues, gross profit, EBITDA, operating and net income in 2020 (the COVID damage year) and 2021 (the recovery year).
- Advertising Sector: This sector saw a massive increase in market capitalization in 2019 (over 1600%), followed by a significant drop in 2022 (-44.41%), and recovery in 2023 (26.88%). The volatility could reflect changes in advertising spending and the impact of digital transformation.
- Aerospace/Defense: The Aerospace/Defense sector has shown steady growth over the years, with an impressive increase of over 100% in 2023. This may reflect increased defense spending and contracts.
- Air Transport: Experiencing high fluctuations, this sector saw a downturn in 2022 (-12.49%) and a strong recovery in 2023 (59.93%), possibly due to the rebound in travel post-pandemic restrictions.
- Apparel: After a substantial increase in 2021 (77.66%), the Apparel sector faced a decline in 2022 before recovering in 2023, which may be due to shifting consumer trends and economic factors.
- Auto & Truck: The sector saw over 50% growth in 2023 after a relatively stable period in 2021 and 2022, potentially due to new model releases or shifts in consumer demands for vehicles.
- Bank (Money Center): Consistent growth with a notable jump in 2023 (24.46%) might be attributed to economic recovery and changes in interest rates affecting bank profitability.
- Computers/Peripherals: Despite a minor increase in 2022, the sector saw a dramatic increase in 2023 (over 600%), suggesting innovation or new product launches significantly impacted market valuation.
- Pharmaceuticals: This sector showed strong growth over the years, indicating the industry's resilience and possibly the development and approval of new drugs.
- Telecom Services: Despite a loss in 2022, the sector rebounded in 2023, which could be related to infrastructure development or the rollout of new technologies like 5G.
- Total Market: The overall market saw a 31.31% increase in 2023, indicating a positive market reassessment of sector values, which could be influenced by economic recovery, technological advancements, or policy changes.
Employee Statistics by Industry
For companies that report employee count, revenues and market cap, by employee; for all firms, stock-based compensation in dollar terms and as percent of revenues.
- High Market Value per Employee in Tech: The Computer Services industry exhibits a high market cap per employee ($156,386.66), suggesting a high valuation of tech employees in terms of market perception and possibly indicating a sector with high productivity or significant technological leverage.
- Significant Stock-Based Compensation: The Software (System & Application) sector shows a substantial amount of stock-based compensation as a percent of revenue (0.86%), indicating a heavy reliance on equity-based employee compensation, which is common in tech industries where attracting top talent is competitive.
- High Revenue per Employee in Telecom: The Telecom (Wireless) sector has a notably high revenue per employee ($550,062.48), which could be attributed to the capital-intensive nature of the industry where the infrastructure supports large customer bases with relatively fewer employees.
- Drastic Market Cap Change: The Advertising industry experienced a massive increase in market cap from 2018 to 2019 (1639.72%), which could suggest a significant event such as a merger, acquisition, or a substantial change in market conditions favoring the industry.
- Aerospace/Defense Market Stability: The Aerospace/Defense industry shows consistent growth in market capitalization over the years, with an increase of 109.39% from 2018 to 2023, reflecting steady sector growth and possibly stable government contracts and global demand.
- High Employee Value in Healthcare Tech: Healthcare Information and Technology has a high market cap per employee ($156,386.66), similar to the Computer Services sector, which might indicate the increasing value of tech-oriented roles in healthcare.
- Food Industry’s Steady Performance: The Food Processing sector has a moderate and steady increase in market cap from year to year, with a 20.90% increase from 2022 to 2023, reflecting possibly stable consumer demand and market conditions.
- Impact of Stock-Based Compensation: In sectors like Restaurant/Dining, stock-based compensation constitutes a significant portion of revenue (1.87%), which might indicate an industry trend to incentivize performance and align employee interests with those of shareholders.
- Substantial Market Cap in Pharmaceuticals: The Drugs (Pharmaceutical) sector shows a high market cap, both in total ($180,590.32 million) and per employee ($5,633.30), which may reflect the high value placed on pharmaceutical companies due to their role in healthcare and potential for innovation.
- Growth in Renewable Energy Valuation: The Green & Renewable Energy sector doesn't show employee data, but given the current global focus on sustainable energy, the sector is likely to see significant valuation increases and investment, which could lead to more job creation and revenue growth in the future.
EVA and Equity EVA by Industry
Average excess returns (return on invested capital minus cost of capital, return on equity minus cost of equity), economic value added and equity economic value added by industry sector.
- High Equity Value Added in Pharmaceuticals: The Drugs (Pharmaceutical) industry shows a significant Equity EVA of approximately $938.19 million, indicating that equity investors are earning well above the required return on their equity investment in the sector.
- Negative EVA in Education: The Education sector has a negative EVA of approximately -$78.88 million, which suggests that the industry is not generating returns over its cost of capital, potentially indicating underperformance or high capital costs.
- Substantial ROC in Healthcare Support Services: Healthcare Support Services have a high Return on Capital (ROC) of 21.37%, indicating efficient use of capital in generating operating income.
- High ROE in Aerospace/Defense: The Aerospace/Defense industry shows a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 25.76%, suggesting that firms in this sector are generating substantial income relative to the equity held by shareholders.
- Large Equity EVA in Computer Services: The Computer Services sector has an Equity EVA of about $8.89 billion, which signifies that equity investors in this sector are seeing significant value generation over and above the cost of equity.
- Lowest Cost of Equity in Food Wholesalers: The Food Wholesalers industry has the lowest Cost of Equity at 8.59%, possibly reflecting lower perceived risk by equity investors in this sector.
- Highest Beta in Insurance (General): The Insurance (General) sector has a high beta of 2.05, indicating that it is considered more than twice as volatile as the market, suggesting a higher risk profile.
- Negative EVA in Publishing & Newspapers: The Publishing & Newspapers sector has an EVA of approximately -$72.16 million, indicating that it is not covering its cost of capital, potentially implying challenges in the industry.
- High ROE in Auto & Truck: The Auto & Truck industry exhibits an ROE of 37.64%, which is one of the highest in the dataset, indicating that firms in this sector are effectively generating profits from their equity.
- Cost of Debt Influenced by Standard Deviation in Stock Prices: The dataset includes a Cost of Debt Lookup Table that ties the cost of debt to the standard deviation in stock prices, suggesting a direct relationship between the volatility of a firm's stock and its cost of borrowing.
Debt Details (Type of debt, short or long term)
Breaks down debt into lease debt and regular debt, short term and long term and interest expenses.
- High Leverage in the Aerospace/Defense Industry: The Aerospace/Defense sector shows a particularly high book interest rate of 20.16%, indicating a significant cost of debt relative to equity, with a total debt including leases of approximately $95.10 million. Moreover, short-term debt constitutes a staggering 94.16% of the total debt, suggesting a potential liquidity risk.
- Banking Sector’s Debt Structure: Banks, both Money Center and Regional, have substantial conventional debt figures ($308,944.30 million and $3,284.00 million respectively) but report no lease debt estimates or interest expenses. This could indicate a business model heavily reliant on traditional debt financing without the use of operating leases.
- Retail Sector’s Short-Term Debt: The Retail (Automotive) industry has an unusually high percentage of short-term debt at 95.40% of its total debt, which could suggest a strategy of capitalizing on lower short-term borrowing rates or indicate a challenging liquidity management scenario.
- Technology Sector’s Lease Commitments: In the Software (System & Application) industry, there is a recorded lease debt (accounting) of $0.728 million, contrasting with other sectors which mostly report $0. This could be due to the capital-intensive nature of the industry requiring more leased assets for operations.
- Interest Rates in Consumer Goods: The Cable TV sector experiences an exceptionally high book interest rate at 32.39%, combined with no short-term debt, which could point to a heavy reliance on long-term financing and high-interest costs.
- Low Debt Utilization in the Food Industry: Food Wholesalers show a low total debt figure ($50.82 million) with a high proportion of short-term debt (65.22%), indicating a possible preference for flexible, short-term financing over long-term obligations.
- Energy Sector’s Lease Debt: Green & Renewable Energy has a notable lease debt estimate of $0.58 million, reflecting the potential use of leased equipment for energy projects, which is not commonly observed in other sectors.
- Pharmaceuticals' High Lease Commitments: The Drugs (Pharmaceutical) industry not only has a significant lease debt (my estimate) of $3.09 million but also shows a substantial book interest rate of 7.89%, hinting at considerable leverage and financial costs in this sector.
- Debt Strategy in Construction: The Engineering/Construction sector has a relatively moderate book interest rate of 7.16% but a high short-term debt percentage of 26.05%, which may reveal a strategy of balancing between short-term financing costs and flexibility.
- Insurance Sector’s High Lease Estimate: In the Insurance (Life) industry, there is a remarkably high lease debt estimate of $44.55 million, which stands out against other sectors and may indicate significant operating lease commitments in their balance sheets.
Debt Ratio Trade Off Variables by Industry
Market debt ratio, the effective tax rate (tax benefit), insider holdings (discipline), variance in operating income (bankruptcy risk) and fixed assets to total assets (agency costs).
- High Leverage in Air Transport: The Air Transport industry shows a total debt to capital ratio of 138.95% on a book basis, which is significantly higher compared to other industries, indicating a high level of leverage.
- Financial Services Leverage: Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) have a market debt to capital ratio of 60.92%, which is the highest among all industries. This suggests that this sector is highly leveraged from a market perspective.
- Low Leverage in Advertising: The Advertising industry has one of the lowest market debt to capital ratios at 1.12%, indicating a low reliance on debt financing relative to their market capitalization.
- Effective Tax Rates: The effective tax rate in the Pharmaceutical industry is relatively high at 19.81%, which might make debt financing more advantageous due to the tax shield on interest payments.
- Institutional Holdings and Stability: Industries like Pharmaceuticals and Aerospace/Defense have higher institutional holdings (above 30%), which often translates to more stable investor bases and potentially better access to capital.
- Capital Spending in Relation to Total Assets: The Green & Renewable Energy sector has a high capital spending to total assets ratio of 7.30%, indicating significant reinvestment, which may necessitate higher financing needs.
- Book Debt to Capital Distinctions: The disparity between book debt to capital and market debt to capital is quite stark in some industries, like Air Transport, where the book ratio is over 100% but the market ratio is much lower at 34.80%. This could be due to market values significantly deviating from book values.
- Interest Coverage Ratios: The Advertising industry stands out with a very high interest coverage ratio of 126.89, suggesting they earn significantly more than needed to cover interest expenses, indicating low default risk.
- High Standard Deviation in Stock Prices: The Semiconductor Equipment industry has a high standard deviation in stock prices, indicating high volatility and potentially higher risk from an equity investor’s standpoint.
- EBITDA to Enterprise Value (EV): The Software (System & Application) industry shows a relatively high EBITDA/EV ratio, suggesting that companies in this sector generate good cash flow relative to their enterprise value, which is a positive sign for potential investors or creditors.
Operating Lease adjusted values for debt, returns and earnings
Summarizes the impact of converting operating lease commitments into debt on market debt to capital ratios, operating income, margins and return on capital, categorized by industry.
- Lease Debt Impact on Air Transport: Air Transport's lease expense as a percentage of sales is extremely high at 12.43%. This indicates that operating leases are a significant expense, yet they do not affect the total debt figures, suggesting that these commitments were previously off-balance sheet.
- Financial Sector Leverage: Both Bank (Money Center) and Banks (Regional) show a notable increase in their debt figures when lease debts are considered, with lease debt constituting 1.04% and 5.47% of their total debt, respectively. This indicates that the inclusion of lease obligations under new accounting standards substantially impacts the reported leverage of these firms.
- High Lease Expense Ratios: Sectors like Trucking, with a lease expense/sales ratio of 31.87%, indicate a heavy reliance on leased assets relative to their sales, which is crucial for industries that depend on high capital expenditure like vehicles.
- Negligible Lease Debt for Many Industries: Several industries, including Broadcasting and Computers/Peripherals, have a 0% lease debt as a percentage of total debt, indicating that lease obligations do not significantly impact their capital structure.
- Lowest Lease Expenses in Relation to Sales: The Utility (Water) sector, despite having no data for many metrics, shows a lease expense/sales ratio as NA, suggesting minimal to no reliance on leasing for their operations or the absence of firms in this category from the dataset.
- Operational Income Adjustments: For most industries, the operating income before and after lease adjustments remains virtually unchanged. This may imply that the lease expenses were already factored into their operating income under previous accounting practices or that the lease expenses are not material enough to impact the operating income significantly.
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): Industries like Insurance (Life) and Software (Internet) have high ROIC percentages, both with and without lease adjustments, indicating efficient use of capital in generating profits.
- Lease Debt Estimates vs. Accounting Figures: The data indicates discrepancies between the estimated lease debt and the accounting figures, which is expected as the estimate includes a pre-tax cost of debt consideration. For example, the Software (System & Application) industry shows an estimated lease debt of approximately $0.684 million against an accounting figure of $0.728 million.
- Influence on Pre-tax Operating Margins: The inclusion of lease debts does not significantly alter pre-tax operating margins, suggesting that the operational profitability of these companies is not heavily influenced by leasing costs.
- Overall Market Impact: When looking at the Total Market, the lease debt as a percentage of total debt is 0.27%, and the inclusion of lease debts only marginally increases the market debt to capital ratio by 0.05%. This indicates that across the market, lease obligations have a relatively small impact on debt ratios and the overall capital structure.
Dividends versus FCFE
Dividends and Free Cash Flows to Equity, i.e., cash flows left over after taxes, reinvestment needs and debt payments (FCFE), by industry
- High Dividend Payout in Tobacco Industry: The Tobacco industry has an exceptionally high dividend payout ratio of 92.56%, with $2,373.10 million in dividends from a net income of $2,563.94 million. This suggests a strong preference for returning profits to shareholders through dividends in this sector.
- Substantial Buybacks in the Computer Services Industry: Computer Services shows a significant cash return in the form of buybacks, with $12,781.95 million in dividends and buybacks from a net income of $13,550.56 million, resulting in a 94.33% payout ratio. This indicates a strong trend towards buybacks over dividends in this sector.
- Negative Cash Returns in Broadcasting and Electronics (General): Both Broadcasting (-16.15% net cash returned/net income) and Electronics (General) (-178.91% net cash returned/net income) industries show negative cash returns when considering dividends, buybacks, and stock issuances, pointing to a potential trend of these industries financing their operations through equity rather than generating positive cash flows.
- High Cash/Firm Value in Reinsurance: The Reinsurance industry shows an unusually high cash to firm value ratio of 43.37%, indicating significant cash holdings relative to their market valuation. This could suggest a conservative financial strategy or a potential for future shareholder returns.
- Strong Net Cash Returns in Metals & Mining: The Metals & Mining sector shows a high net cash return as a percentage of FCFE (before debt cash flows) at 357.00%. This indicates a strong capacity to return cash to shareholders relative to the free cash flow generated.
- Negative FCFE in the Education Sector: The Education sector has a negative FCFE (before debt cash flows), indicating that it might be investing more than its net income and depreciation, which could be a concern for sustainability of dividends and buybacks.
- Significant Debt Repayment in the Oil/Gas (Integrated) Sector: This sector shows a negative FCFE (after debt cash flows) of -$191.10 million, suggesting that the industry might be using its cash to repay debt rather than returning it to shareholders.
- High Net Cash Returns in Real Estate (General/Diversified): This sector shows a high Net Cash Returned/FCFE (pre-debt) of 72.19%, indicating a strong preference for returning cash to shareholders in this industry.
- Negative Net Income in Telecom (Wireless): The Telecom (Wireless) sector shows a negative net income of -$4,496.80 million, yet still manages a cash return (dividends + buybacks) of $516.01 million, suggesting that these returns are not being funded from earnings.
- Large Scale Stock Issuances in Broadcasting and Electronics (General): Both Broadcasting and Electronics (General) industries show large-scale stock issuances (negative dividends + buybacks - stock issuances), which could be indicative of these sectors relying heavily on equity financing.
Dividend Policy Trade Off Variables by Industry
Dividend yield and payout ratios, as well as other variables that might be relevant in examining the trade off involved in paying dividends.
- High Dividend Yield in Tobacco Industry: The Tobacco industry has a notably high dividend yield of 3.29%, which is substantially higher than the total market average of 1.15%. This indicates that the tobacco industry is likely viewed as a high-dividend-paying sector.
- Exceptional Dividend Payout in REITs: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have an extraordinary dividend payout of 618.38%. This extreme value could indicate that REITs distribute most of their income as dividends, which is typical for the industry due to tax structure benefits.
- High Institutional Holdings in Education: Despite negative ROE and a very low dividend yield, the Education sector has relatively high institutional holdings at 47.78%. This could suggest institutional belief in the sector's long-term growth or stability, beyond dividend returns.
- Negative ROE in Cable TV: The Cable TV sector shows a negative ROE of -16.28%, indicating that the average firm in this industry is not generating a positive return on equity, which could be a warning sign for investors looking for sustainable profitability.
- Low Dividend Payout Ratio in Oil/Gas Distribution: Despite a high Special Dividends percentage of 66.53%, the Oil/Gas Distribution sector has a relatively modest dividend payout ratio of 17.82%, suggesting a cautious approach to regular dividend payments.
- Special Dividends in Broadcasting: The Broadcasting sector has a significant portion of its dividends as special dividends (42%), indicating that companies in this sector may prefer one-time distributions over regular dividends.
- High Standard Deviation in Food Wholesalers: The Food Wholesalers sector has a high standard deviation of stock prices at 46.22%, indicating a higher risk in stock price volatility compared to the total market average of 37.27%.
- Zero Dividends in Retail (Grocery and Food): There are no dividends paid out in the Retail (Grocery and Food) sector, which may reflect a reinvestment strategy into the business rather than distribution to shareholders.
- High Market Capitalization in Computer Services: The Computer Services sector has a substantial market cap of $399,762.54 million, paired with a high dividend payout ratio of 70.00%, showcasing its significant size and commitment to returning earnings to shareholders.
- Low Dividend Yield in Machinery: The Machinery sector has a lower than average dividend yield of 0.34%, despite a reasonable payout ratio of 14.66%, which could indicate that the market values these companies more for their growth potential than for their current dividend payments.
Capital Expenditures, Depreciation, Reinvestment Rate and Sales to Capital Ratios by Industry
Aggregated capital expenditures and depreciation by industry sector, as a percent of operating income (reinvestment rate) and scaled to revenues (sales to capital ratio). It is a useful resource on how much companies in a sector are reinvesting, in their attempt to keep growing.
- High Net Cap Ex/Sales in Green & Renewable Energy: The sector has a Net Cap Ex/Sales ratio of 41.51%, indicating a significant reinvestment relative to its sales, which reflects aggressive growth strategies or capital-intensive operations.
- Negative Net Cap Ex for Air Transport: The Air Transport industry shows a negative Net Cap Ex/Sales ratio of -3.46% and an even more negative Net Cap Ex/EBIT (1-t) of -34.52%. This could suggest asset sales or an industry in decline or recovery mode, particularly if this was affected by recent events like a pandemic.
- High R&D Investment in Biotechnology: Drugs (Biotechnology) show an exceptionally high Net R&D to Sales ratio of 114.81%. This is expected given the industry's heavy reliance on continuous innovation and development of new drugs.
- Significant Acquisitions in Biotechnology: The Biotechnology sector also shows a high level of acquisitions at $1,885.40 million, indicating consolidation or strategic asset accumulation, which is common in industries with high innovation rates.
- Lowest Cap Ex/Depreciation Ratio in Software (Entertainment): This sector has a Cap Ex/Depreciation ratio of just 49.62%, which may indicate a lower need for physical capital investment or efficient use of assets.
- Extremely High Sales/Invested Capital in Banks (Regional): The Regional Banks have an unusually high Sales/Invested Capital ratio of 1376.85%, reflecting the nature of the banking industry where the asset base includes significant financial assets as opposed to physical or intangible assets.
- Negative Net Cap Ex for Cable TV: The Cable TV industry has a negative Net Cap Ex, which, when combined with a negative Net Cap Ex/EBIT (1-t) of -155.54%, could suggest disinvestment or depreciation outpacing capital expenditures.
- High Capital Reinvestment in Shipbuilding & Marine: The Shipbuilding & Marine industry exhibits a very high Net Cap Ex as a percentage of EBIT (1-t) at 176.37%, likely reflecting the capital-intensive nature of this industry.
- Substantial Net Cap Ex relative to Sales in Apparel: The Apparel industry shows a Net Cap Ex/Sales ratio of 0.96% but a very high Net Cap Ex relative to EBIT (1-t) of 44.27%, indicating a significant portion of earnings is being reinvested into the business.
- High Sales/Invested Capital in Computer Services: With a Sales/Invested Capital ratio of 2.54, the Computer Services industry is effectively utilizing its invested capital to generate sales, which may indicate a high efficiency in capital use relative to the total market average of 0.98.
R&D Expenditures
Looks at current and past (last five years) R&D expenses as well as my estimate of capitalized R&D, with effects on earnings and invested capital.
- High R&D Capitalization in Aerospace/Defense: The sector shows a significant R&D Capitalized amount of $1,102.6808 million, which is 67.71% of the invested capital, indicating heavy investment in innovation relative to its capital structure.
- Substantial R&D Investment in Biotechnology: Drugs (Biotechnology) have a high R&D Capitalized value of $474.696 million, representing 15.32% of the invested capital, showcasing the industry's focus on research and development.
- Consistent R&D Spending in Auto & Truck: Over the past five years, the Auto & Truck industry has shown a consistent level of R&D expenditure, with a very slight CAGR of 0.02%, suggesting stability in their R&D investment strategy.
- Negative Growth in Beverage (Alcoholic): The sector shows a negative CAGR in R&D spending of -62.78%, which could indicate a shift in strategic priorities or an industry facing challenges that affect its investment in R&D.
- High R&D as Percent of Revenue in Software (System & Application): This industry has a current R&D as a percentage of revenue at 1.84%, reflecting a strong emphasis on R&D relative to its size.
- Significant R&D Capitalization in Drugs (Pharmaceutical): With $5,081.749 million capitalized, which is 13.25% of invested capital, the pharmaceutical industry is heavily invested in R&D, crucial for new drug development.
- Stable R&D Expenditure in Chemical (Specialty): The Chemical (Specialty) industry shows a CAGR of 7.78%, indicating a commitment to growth through R&D.
- High R&D Growth in Power: The Power sector's R&D has grown at a CAGR of 93.06%, suggesting a surge in investment towards innovation, possibly in renewable energy or efficiency improvements.
- Minimal R&D in Financial Sectors: Both Bank (Money Center) and Banks (Regional) show no R&D expenditure, which is typical as financial institutions usually don't engage heavily in research and development activities.
- R&D Focused Growth in Healthcare Information and Technology: The sector’s R&D CAGR stands at 8.31%, showing a focus on technology development and innovation within the healthcare space.
Goodwill and Impairment
Looks at the most useless and damaging of accounting items, goodwill, in magnitude, changes and impairment. If nothing else, it gives you a measure of both how active companies have been on the M&A front and how much they have paid on these acquisitions.
- High R&D Investment Relative to Revenue: Industries like Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals show a significant investment in R&D as a percentage of revenue, reflecting the heavy emphasis on research and innovation in these sectors.
- Goodwill as a Percentage of Total Assets: Certain industries like Broadcasting and Healthcare Facilities have a high percentage of goodwill relative to total assets, indicating a history of acquisitions and the importance of intangible assets in these sectors.
- Impairment Charges: Industries such as Cable TV and Education have reported substantial impairment as a percentage of goodwill, suggesting overpayment on past acquisitions or a downward adjustment of the value of acquired assets.
- Capital Expenditures vs. Depreciation: Some industries like Auto & Trucks and Construction Supplies have a high ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation, which suggests recent significant investments in physical assets, indicative of growth or renewal strategies.
- Dividend Payouts and Yields: Industries with higher dividend payouts and yields, such as Utilities and Telecommunications, might be attractive to income-focused investors, reflecting a potential maturity in these sectors where companies return more cash to shareholders.
- Change in Goodwill: The change in goodwill can indicate the level of acquisition activity. For example, industries like Computer Services and Software show a high increase in goodwill, implying aggressive growth through acquisitions.
- Stable vs. Volatile Industries: The standard deviation of equity returns can provide insight into the volatility of industries. For instance, sectors like Technology and Pharmaceuticals may display higher volatility, reflecting the inherent risks and rapid changes in these markets.
- Institutional Holdings: High percentages of institutional holdings in industries like Aerospace/Defense and Pharmaceuticals could indicate a strong confidence by institutional investors in the stability and long-term prospects of these industries.
- Market Capitalization: The aggregated market values of equity in industries provide a sense of their relative size and economic impact. For example, industries like Financial Services and Technology have significant market caps, highlighting their dominance in the market.
- Negative Net Cap Ex: Industries with a negative Net Cap Ex, such as Air Transport, may signal a period of divestment or capital conservation, possibly in response to industry downturns or strategic shifts.
Operating and Net Margins by Industry Sector
This reports gross, pre-tax operating and net profit margins by industry sector for the most recent time period.
- High R&D Investment in Biotech: The Drugs (Biotechnology) industry shows a significant investment in R&D as a percentage of sales (11.06%), suggesting a strong focus on innovation and future growth potential.
- Software and Tech Investment: Software (System & Application) companies are also heavily investing in R&D (1.84% of sales), indicating a commitment to innovation, which could attract investors looking for growth in the tech sector.
- Profitability in Financial Services: Investments & Asset Management firms have a notably high Net Margin (45.86%), which is substantially above the average across industries. This could point to a highly profitable industry, albeit with potential risks tied to market performance.
- Utility Sector Stability: The Utility (General) industry shows a moderate Gross Margin (17.26%) and a low Net Margin (1.65%), which is typical for utilities that often have stable but regulated returns.
- Impairments in Cable TV: The Cable TV industry has a substantial impairment percentage relative to goodwill (186.15%), which may raise concerns about the valuation of assets and previous acquisitions.
- Negative Margins in Publishing & Newspapers: The Publishing & Newspapers industry has a negative After-tax Unadjusted Operating Margin (-8.59%), indicating challenges in profitability which may be due to declining traditional media revenues.
- High Lease Expenses in Trucking: The Trucking industry has a very high Lease Expense/Sales ratio (31.87%), which could affect the operating income due to significant financing expenses related to their fleet.
- Low Cost of Goods in Banks: Both Bank (Money Center) and Banks (Regional) have a COGS/Sales ratio close to zero, reflecting the non-manufacturing nature of financial services where the cost of goods sold is not a primary cost factor.
- Healthcare Profitability: The Healthcare Support Services industry shows a healthy After-tax Unadjusted Operating Margin (11.30%), which could be appealing for investors looking for profitability in the healthcare sector.
- Concerning Precious Metals Metrics: The Precious Metals industry has a Net Margin of -590.70%, which is significantly negative, likely indicating a major issue such as a large, non-recurring expense or an accounting anomaly.
Financing Flows by Sector
Looks at financing flows to & from equity (dividends, buybacks & issuances) and to and from debt (debt repaid and debt raised)
- Sector Variation in Financing Activities: There is significant variation across industries in terms of dividends, buybacks, and equity issuance. For example, the Aerospace/Defense sector shows a substantial net equity change, while the Computer Services sector has a significant negative net equity change.
- Net Equity Change as a Valuation Indicator: The net equity change as a percentage of book equity gives a sense of how aggressively companies are financing their operations through equity. High values could indicate growth or over-leveraging depending on the context.
- Debt Utilization: The net change in debt as a percentage of total debt highlights how industries are managing their leverage. A positive percentage indicates increased borrowing, which could suggest expansion or potential financial stress.
- Cash Return to Shareholders: Industries with high dividends and buybacks are returning more cash to shareholders, which could be attractive to income-focused investors.
- Growth Prospects: The Net Equity Change in dollar amounts can signal which industries are growing and which are contracting. Sectors with high equity issuances might be investing in growth, while those with high buybacks may be signaling maturity or a lack of profitable reinvestment opportunities.
- Financial Health: Industries with a higher percentage of debt repayment compared to new debt raised might be focusing on improving their balance sheets, which can be a sign of prudent financial management.
- Change in Lease Debt: Changes in lease debt can indicate shifts in how companies are managing their asset bases, which may be due to changes in operational strategy or accounting practices.
- Law of Large Numbers: The number of firms in each industry can affect the reliability of the data. Industries with a higher number of firms might offer more stable and representative data.
- Cash Flows from Financing: This metric is crucial as it shows the net cash flow from financing activities, which affects a company's capital structure and can influence investment decisions.
- Market Sentiment and Strategy: The combination of dividends, buybacks, and equity issuance can also reflect market sentiment and strategic decisions by management, providing insights into the company's market positioning and future expectations.
Working Capital Requirements by Industry Sector
This lists out inventory, accounts receivable, accounts payable and non-cash working capital by industry sector, as a percent of revenues.
- High Receivables in Aerospace/Defense: With accounts receivable at 39.71% of sales, the Aerospace/Defense sector has a high receivable level, suggesting opportunities for companies that can improve collection processes or offer factoring services.
- Inventory Management in Pharmaceuticals: Drugs (Pharmaceutical) companies have 22.90% of sales tied up in inventory. Investors might look for companies with more efficient inventory turnover as a potential for better cash flow management.
- Cash Flow Opportunities in Financial Services: The Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) sector has an exceptionally high Acc Pay/Sales ratio of 48.46%. This could indicate opportunities for financial optimization services.
- Working Capital Efficiency in Advertising: The Advertising industry shows relatively low non-cash working capital demands at 2.69% of sales, suggesting it may have more cash available for reinvestment or distribution to investors.
- Real Estate Development Cash Tied Up: Real Estate (Development) has a staggering Non-cash WC/Sales ratio of 135.88%. This indicates a significant amount of cash is tied up, which may represent an opportunity for financial services that can help manage or finance this working capital.
- Broadcasting Industry's High Payables: Broadcasting has a high Acc Pay/Sales ratio of 25.45%. Companies that can negotiate longer payment terms can use this as a strategic advantage to maintain liquidity.
- Cash Management Services for Tech: With Heathcare Information and Technology showing a Non-cash WC/Sales ratio of 34.90%, there could be a need for sophisticated cash management solutions in this industry.
- Negative Working Capital in Air Transport: Air Transport has a negative Non-cash WC/Sales ratio of -26.62%, which may indicate efficient cash conversion cycles or aggressive accounting; this could be a point of investigation for risk assessment.
- Supply Chain Financing in Auto & Truck: The Auto & Truck sector has a high Acc Pay/Sales ratio at 16.96% and a negative Non-cash WC/Sales ratio of -7.42%. This suggests an opportunity for supply chain financing solutions tailored to this industry.
- Retail Sector Inventory Strategies: Retail (Special Lines) has a high Inventory/Sales ratio of 35.93%, indicating potential opportunities for companies that can provide inventory management technology or logistics solutions to improve turnover rates.
Return on Equity decomposition by Industry sector:
This data set reports return on equity (net income/book value of equity) by industry grouping and decomposes these returns into a pure return on capital and a leverage effect.
- High ROE in Auto & Truck: The Auto & Truck industry shows a high unadjusted ROE of 37.64%, indicating robust profitability. However, when adjusted for R&D, it drops to 23.53%, which may suggest the industry's earnings are significantly impacted by R&D expenditures.
- R&D Impact on Tech Sectors: For industries like Computers/Peripherals and Software (Internet), the ROE remains the same before and after adjustment for R&D. This indicates that R&D capitalization does not significantly alter the apparent profitability of these firms, which might attract investors looking for genuine growth prospects not inflated by accounting for R&D.
- Negative ROE in Cable TV: The Cable TV sector shows a negative ROE of -16.28%, suggesting it may be struggling or that there are industry-wide challenges affecting profitability. This could indicate a potential for restructuring or turnaround investment opportunities.
- Biotechnology R&D Adjustment: In the Drugs (Biotechnology) industry, the ROE increases from 4.73% to 8.19% after R&D adjustment. This demonstrates the significant impact of R&D expenses on reported earnings and suggests that the industry's economic profitability may be understated.
- Insurance (Life) High ROE: With an ROE of 62.46%, the Insurance (Life) sector is showing exceptional profitability. This could signal a well-managed industry or one with high barriers to entry, potentially providing stable investment opportunities.
- Office Equipment & Services Profitability: This sector shows an impressive ROE of 48.57% unadjusted, only slightly higher than the R&D-adjusted ROE of 47.55%. The small adjustment difference indicates that profitability is not heavily dependent on R&D capitalization.
- Utility (General) Modest ROE: The Utility (General) industry's ROE is modest at 2.81%, dropping slightly to 2.54% after R&D adjustments. This low ROE reflects the regulated nature of utility returns and suggests limited growth but potential for steady income.
- Retail Sector Variability: Retail (General) shows a negative unadjusted ROE of -2.31%, which improves slightly to -2.26% after R&D adjustments. This could point to opportunities for investors in operational improvements or indicate a need for caution due to potential systemic issues.
- High ROE in Tobacco: The Tobacco industry's high ROE of nearly 30% reflects strong profit margins, which may be due to pricing power or inelastic demand. This could interest investors looking for defensive stocks with pricing power.
- Total Market Consistency: The Total Market shows a decrease in ROE from 16.04% to 15.70% after R&D adjustment, suggesting that across the board, R&D expenses have a moderate impact on reported profitability. Investors may appreciate industries with less dramatic changes post-adjustment, indicating less aggressive accounting practices.
Fundamental Growth Rate in EPS by Industry
This data set summarizes growth rates from fundamentals (ROE * Retention Ratio) by industry group, reflecting what these companies can grow earnings per share at in steady state, if margins don't change.
- High Retention with High Growth in Auto & Truck: The Auto & Truck industry has a high retention ratio of 76.39% and a fundamental growth rate of 28.75%. This indicates a strong reinvestment strategy that could lead to significant growth, an attractive prospect for growth investors.
- Negative Growth Rates and Retention Concerns: Cable TV shows a negative fundamental growth rate of -16.28%, which could indicate that the industry is in decline or facing significant challenges. It could also signal potential opportunities for turnaround or value investors if the industry can stabilize.
- High ROE in Aerospace/Defense: Aerospace/Defense has a robust ROE of 25.76% and a moderate growth rate of 17.84%. Investors might view this as a sign of strong operational efficiency and profitability.
- Potential Overvaluation in Pharmaceuticals: The Pharmaceutical industry's growth rate is moderate at 10.29%, despite a relatively high ROE. If the growth rate is not in line with the ROE, it could indicate that the market might be overvaluing the earnings potential of these companies.
- Strong Reinvestment in Technology: Software (Internet) has a high retention ratio of 97.71% and an impressive growth rate of 22.15%. This suggests that the industry is effectively reinvesting its earnings to fuel growth, which may appeal to investors looking for high-growth opportunities.
- Financial Services as a Stable Investment: Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) have a healthy growth rate of 15.25% with a high retention ratio of 79.50%, potentially making it an attractive sector for investors seeking both growth and stability.
- Negative Growth Rate in Education: The Education sector shows a negative growth rate, which might indicate systemic issues or accounting anomalies. This could suggest either an industry in distress or a data error that requires further investigation.
- High Growth in Recreation: The Recreation industry stands out with a very high growth rate of 37.09%, paired with a significant retention ratio. This could point to an industry that is aggressively expanding and reinvesting its earnings.
- Varied Growth Opportunities in Retail: The Retail sector shows a wide range of growth rates, from negative in Retail (General) to high in Retail (Grocery and Food). This variance suggests a need for selective investment strategies within the retail space.
- Stability in Utilities: Utility (General) has a low but stable growth rate of 2.81%, which may be suitable for investors looking for predictable returns and lower risk.
Historical Growth Rate in Earnings by Industry
This data set summarizes historical growth in earnings and revenues, over the last 5 years, by industry.
- High Expected Growth in Advertising: With an expected growth in revenues of 22.30% over the next 2 years and an impressive expected growth in EPS of 30.80% over the next 5 years, the Advertising sector shows potential for strong performance, making it an attractive area for investment.
- Aerospace/Defense as a Growth Sector: Aerospace/Defense stands out with a high CAGR in net income of 25.86% and expected growth in revenues of 27.75% over the next 2 years, indicating robust industry health and the potential for future growth.
- Challenges in Air Transport: The Air Transport industry has experienced a negative CAGR in revenues over the last 5 years (-23.03%), yet analysts predict a strong rebound in revenue growth (18.24%) for the next 2 years, which may present a recovery opportunity for investors.
- Auto & Truck Industry Momentum: The Auto & Truck sector shows substantial historical growth in net income (62.43%) and revenues (63.95%), with continued strong expected growth in revenues and EPS, suggesting sustained upward momentum.
- Banking Sector Stability: Both Money Center and Regional Banks exhibit strong and stable growth rates in net income and revenues, coupled with healthy expected revenue and EPS growth, indicating a potentially stable investment.
- Tech Industry Prospects: The Software (System & Application) sector has seen a negative CAGR in revenues but is expected to reverse this trend with a strong expected revenue growth of 22.94% and EPS growth of 35.43% over the next 5 years, highlighting potential for significant growth.
- Biotech's Volatile Performance: Drugs (Biotechnology) shows a historical decline in net income but is forecasted for high revenue and EPS growth, reflecting the sector's high risk-high reward nature.
- Healthcare Sector Growth: Healthcare Support Services have demonstrated robust historical revenue growth (36.22%) and are expected to continue this trend, which may interest investors looking for dynamic growth sectors.
- Consumer Discretionary Opportunities: The Hotel/Gaming industry exhibits solid historical growth and exceptionally high expected EPS growth (90.62%), indicating potential for significant earnings expansion.
- Retail Sector Recovery: Despite historical declines in net income and revenues in some retail subsectors, expected growth rates are positive across the board, suggesting a potential rebound and investment opportunities in retail.
Fundamental Growth Rate in EBIT by Industry
This data set summarizes growth rates from fundamentals (ROC*Reinvestment Rate) by industry group, reflecting what these companies can grow operating income at in steady state, if margins don't change
- High ROC Industries: Industries with a high Return on Capital (ROC) indicate efficient use of capital. Aerospace/Defense and Computer Services are examples with 29.20% and 35.89% ROC, respectively. These industries could be attractive for investors looking for companies with effective capital utilization.
- Negative Reinvestment Rates: Air Transport and Beverage (Soft) show negative reinvestment rates, which may suggest these industries are shrinking or distributing more capital than earning. This could indicate potential risks or a transition phase in these sectors.
- High Expected Growth in EBIT: Industries with high expected growth in Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT), like Broadcasting at 72.15%, could be promising for investors targeting growth opportunities.
- Discrepancies in Reinvestment and Growth Rates: Some industries like Coal & Related Energy have a high reinvestment rate (67.27%) but a very high expected growth in EBIT (62.08%), which might indicate overly optimistic forecasts or recent strategic investments that are expected to pay off significantly.
- Negative Growth Rates: Industries like Air Transport and Beverage (Soft) with negative expected growth rates could either be facing temporary challenges or long-term structural issues. This could represent a warning sign or a contrarian investment opportunity if the investor believes in a turnaround.
- Outliers in Reinvestment Rate: Extreme reinvestment rates, such as those seen in Banks (Money Center) and Homebuilding, suggest abnormal industry conditions or potential data errors that should be investigated further.
- Stable Growth Prospects: Industries like Food Processing and Healthcare Products have moderate ROC and growth rates, indicating stability and potential for steady returns.
- Potential for Turnarounds: Industries with low or negative growth rates like Telecom (Wireless) could be targets for turnaround plays if investors believe the industry can overcome its current challenges.
- High Growth with Reasonable Reinvestment: Industries like Software (System & Application) and Healthcare Support Services show a good balance between reinvestment rates and expected growth, which might be indicative of sustainable growth strategies.
- Contrasts Between Past and Future Growth: Some industries like Retail (Distributors) have shown high historical growth but are forecasted to have lower growth in the future. This could suggest market saturation or increased competition.
PE Ratios, PEG Ratios and Expected Growth Rates by Industry Sector
This lists out the PE ratio, expected growth (Value Line) and the PE/growth by industry group for the most recent time period.
- Variation in PE Ratios Across Industries: The PE ratios vary significantly across industries. For example, industries like Advertising, Aerospace/Defense, and Apparel have relatively high current PE ratios, whereas industries like Coal & Related Energy, Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration), and Metals & Mining have lower PE ratios. This variation indicates that some industries are valued more highly by the market relative to their earnings.
- Impact of Profitability on PE Ratios: The dataset distinguishes between money-making and non-money-making firms. Industries with a higher percentage of money-losing firms might have inflated aggregate PE ratios. For instance, Air Transport, Broadcasting, and Software (Entertainment) have a high percentage of money-losing firms, which could distort the industry averages.
- Forward vs. Trailing PE: Forward PE ratios, based on expected future earnings, can provide insights into the market's growth expectations for different industries. Comparing forward PE with trailing PE (based on past earnings) can indicate whether the market expects an industry's earnings to grow or shrink. For example, a lower forward PE compared to trailing PE in industries like Auto & Truck, Chemical (Basic), and Steel might suggest expected earnings growth.
- Aggregate Market Cap Ratios: The ratios of Aggregate Market Cap to Net Income, both for all firms and only money-making firms, give a sense of how the market values earnings in each industry. A higher ratio suggests that the market is willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings, possibly due to higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk.
- Expected Growth and PEG Ratios: The expected growth rate in earnings per share over the next five years is a crucial factor. Industries with high expected growth, like Electronics (Consumer & Office), Healthcare Products, and Recreation, often command higher PE ratios. The PEG Ratio, which adjusts PE for growth, can be a more level playing field for comparing industries with different growth rates.
- Opportunities for Investors:
- Growth Investing: Industries with high expected growth and reasonable PEG ratios could be attractive for growth investors. For instance, sectors like Healthcare Information and Technology, Software (System & Application), and Telecom Services show potential.
- Value Investing: Investors looking for undervalued opportunities might find interest in industries with lower PE ratios but stable fundamentals, like Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) and Metals & Mining.
- Diversification: The significant differences across industries highlight the importance of diversification in an investment portfolio.
- Potential Risks: Industries with very high PE ratios or significant portions of money-losing firms might carry higher risks. These industries could be more susceptible to market corrections or changes in investor sentiment.
- Sector-Specific Trends: Understanding sector-specific trends and market conditions is crucial. For example, high PE ratios in Renewable Energy might reflect optimism about future green energy policies.
Price and Enterprise Value to Book Ratios and ROE by Industry Sector
This lists outs Price/Book and EV/Invested Capital ratios and ROE/ROIC by industry group for the most recent time period.
- Revenue Multiples: The Price/Sales (PS) and EV/Sales ratios give us a sense of how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of sales. High ratios may indicate that investors expect high growth or high profitability in the future.
- Profitability Margins: Net Margin and Pre-tax Operating Margin are indicators of how much profit companies are making from their sales. A higher net margin suggests better cost control and efficiency at turning sales into profits.
- Industry Variability: There is a wide range of values across industries, suggesting that different sectors are subject to varying investor expectations and business performance metrics.
- Potential Investment Opportunities:
- Growth Potential: Industries with high EV/Sales ratios but moderate to low PS ratios, such as Green & Renewable Energy and Software (Entertainment), may indicate growth expectations are not yet fully priced into stock prices.
- Value Plays: Conversely, industries with lower PS ratios, such as Air Transport and Apparel, may represent undervalued sectors, particularly if they have decent profitability margins.
- High Profitability: Industries with high net margins and pre-tax operating margins, such as Tobacco and Investments & Asset Management, are highly profitable, which may sustain higher valuation multiples.
- Risks and Considerations:
- Negative Margins: Industries like Cable TV and Insurance (General) with negative margins may indicate sector-specific challenges or accounting anomalies that require further investigation.
- Outliers: The Precious Metals industry shows extremely high PS and EV/Sales ratios with negative margins, which could be due to extraordinary items, misclassification, or data errors and needs to be scrutinized further.
- Sector-Specific Strategies:
- Defensive Investing: Stable industries with consistent margins, such as Food Processing and Household Products, might be less volatile and could serve as defensive plays.
- Cyclical Opportunities: Industries that are more cyclical, like Machinery and Metals & Mining, could offer higher returns during economic upturns.
- Macro Factors: The dataset represents the Indian market; thus, investors should consider macroeconomic factors such as currency risk, economic growth rates, and regulatory environment specific to India.
Enterprise Value/EBIT &Enterprise Value/EBITDA Multiples by Industry Sector
This lists out Enterprise Value multiples (of EBIT nd EBITDA) by industry group for the most recent time period.
- EV/EBITDAR&D, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and EV/EBIT (1-t): These ratios compare the enterprise value of firms to their earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), with the last also taking into account R&D expenses and taxes. A lower multiple may suggest that a company is potentially undervalued relative to its earnings.
- Industry Variance: There is a significant variance in multiples across industries, which could be reflective of different industry risks, growth prospects, and capital structures. For example, Computer Services and Software-related industries typically have higher multiples, indicating investor confidence in future growth potential.
- R&D Capitalization vs. Expense: The difference between EV/EBITDAR&D and EV/EBITDA can provide insight into how the capitalization of R&D affects valuation multiples. Industries with significant R&D spending like Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology may show a notable variance.
- Opportunities for Value Investors: Industries with lower EV multiples such as Coal & Related Energy, Metals & Mining, and Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) may be of interest to value investors, especially if the low multiples are due to temporary industry downturns rather than long-term structural issues.
- Growth Investing: Conversely, sectors with higher EV/EBIT (1-t) multiples might be more aligned with growth investing strategies. High multiples could indicate expected future earnings growth, significant non-operating assets, or a lower risk profile as perceived by investors.
- Tax Effects: The EV/EBIT (1-t) multiple adjusts for taxes, which can significantly affect profitability. Comparing EV/EBIT with EV/EBIT (1-t) might highlight the impact of tax efficiency on industry valuation.
- Potential Risks and Anomalies: Some industries like Education and Environmental & Waste Services show substantial disparities when comparing only positive EBITDA firms to all firms, suggesting the presence of companies with negative EBITDA that could be distorting industry averages. This requires deeper analysis to understand underlying reasons and risks.
- Macro and Micro Analysis: While evaluating these multiples, it's important for investors to also consider macroeconomic factors like interest rates, economic growth, and industry-specific trends.
- Financial Sector: The absence of EV/EBITDA and related multiples for the banking sector (Money Center Banks and Regional Banks) indicates these metrics are less relevant for financial firms due to their unique balance sheet structures.
Option Pricing Models-Firm Value and EquityValue Standard Deviations (for use in real option pricing models)
This lists out average annualized stock price variance (in daily stock prices) over the previous five years, and the average standard deviation in firm value over the same period.
- High Equity Variability: The Advertising, Education, and Software (Internet) industries show a high standard deviation in equity, which suggests a high level of risk or variability in the returns of firms within these sectors.
- Capital Structure: The Air Transport industry has a relatively balanced capital structure with 65.20% equity and 34.80% debt, indicating a higher reliance on debt compared to industries like Advertising or Software (Internet), which have over 95% equity financing.
- Low Debt Utilization: Several industries, such as Advertising, Aerospace/Defense, and Beverage (Alcoholic), show very high equity financing (over 95% E/(D+E)) with correspondingly low levels of debt financing. This could suggest a low level of leverage or preference for equity over debt in these sectors.
- Financial Services Sector Variability: The Financial Services (Non-bank & Insurance) industry shows a low standard deviation in equity compared to its firm value standard deviation, which is quite unique. This could indicate that the firm values are more volatile than equity values, potentially due to other factors like liabilities that are not captured by equity alone.
- Risk in Energy Sectors: The Coal & Related Energy sector shows a high standard deviation in both equity and firm value, indicating a high level of risk, which could be attributed to market volatility, regulatory changes, or environmental concerns associated with this industry.
- Data Unavailability: For some industries, such as Homebuilding and Retail (REITs), the standard deviation in equity is not available (NA), which suggests that either the data was not accessible, not applicable, or there were not enough firms to calculate a meaningful standard deviation.
- Total Market Perspective: Looking at the 'Total Market' row, there's a standard deviation in equity of 37.27% and in firm value of 30.56%. This provides a sense of the overall market risk profile.
- Industry Size Variation: The Apparel industry has a notably high number of firms (344), while several industries like Homebuilding and Precious Metals have very few (1). This variation in industry size could affect the reliability of the standard deviation figures due to different sample sizes.
- Special Cases: Certain sectors, such as Telecom (Wireless) and Oil/Gas (Integrated), have a much higher debt ratio in their capital structure, which can be indicative of the capital-intensive nature of these industries requiring significant investment in infrastructure.
TLDR: Summary and Investment Opportunities for 2024:
- High Insider Ownership: Sectors like Healthcare Products and Homebuilding display high CEO and insider ownership. This might pose risks for minority shareholders but also indicates potential for strong control and direction from insiders.
- Institutional Influence in Power Industry: The high institutional holdings suggest significant influence on corporate policies and governance, potentially leading to more strategic decision-making.
- Banking and Insurance Sectors: Low CEO holdings might affect alignment with shareholder interests. This could impact company performance and shareholder returns.
- Software (Internet) Sector: High CEO holdings suggest strong alignment with shareholder returns and potential for entrepreneurial risk-taking. This could be an attractive sector for investors looking for growth and innovation-driven companies.
- Diverse Ownership Structures: Varied structures across industries like Cable TV and Software (Internet) indicate different investment dynamics and risk profiles.
- Semiconductors and Technology: Low institutional holdings might imply less oversight. However, high volatility in these sectors suggests potential for high rewards albeit with higher risks.
- Healthcare and Software Risks: High insider holdings could lead to decisions favoring insiders. Investors should be cautious but also consider the potential for strong directional leadership.
- Discount Rate Estimation: Variation in betas across industries highlights different risk levels. Sectors like Semiconductors and Pharmaceuticals are more volatile, whereas Food Processing shows stability.
- Cost of Capital by Industry: Varies significantly. Software (Internet) has a low cost of equity, while Precious Metals have a high cost, affecting investment attractiveness.
- Tax Rate by Industry: Varies widely, impacting net profitability. Sectors like Pharmaceuticals face high tax burdens, while Software enjoys lower rates.
- Market Capitalization and Growth: Advertising and Aerospace/Defense sectors showed significant growth, indicating potential investment opportunities.
- Employee Statistics: High market value per employee in tech sectors suggests high productivity and growth potential.
- EVA and Equity EVA: Industries like Pharmaceuticals and Computer Services show significant Equity EVA, indicating strong value generation for equity investors.
- Debt Details: Aerospace/Defense and Insurance sectors show high leverage, requiring careful risk assessment.
- Dividends vs FCFE: Tobacco and Computer Services sectors show high dividend payouts and buybacks, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Capital Expenditures and R&D: Sectors like Green & Renewable Energy and Biotechnology show high investment, indicating growth and innovation focus.
Investment Strategy Recommendations for 2024:
- Growth-Oriented: Focus on sectors with high CEO holdings and innovation, like Software (Internet) and Biotechnology.
- Value Investing: Consider sectors with lower valuations but strong fundamentals like Food Processing.
- Income-Focused: Look into sectors with high dividend payouts like Tobacco and Financial Services.
- Diversification: Balance portfolio with stable sectors like Food Processing and high-growth sectors like Tech and Green Energy.
- Risk Management: Be cautious with sectors having high insider ownership and sectors like Semiconductors due to their volatility.