JANUARY 2024 REPORT

Reported JAN 5 by Prof. Damodaran of NYU, Interpreted by GPT-4, Compiled by Akash Deep

INDIA SUMMARY

Corporate Governance

Discount Rate Estimation

Levered and Unlevered Betas by Industry: To estimate pure play betas by business, to use in estimating a bottom up beta for a project or a company.

Total Beta By Industry Sector

Betas adjusted to reflect a firm's total exposure to risk rather than just the market risk component. It is a function of the market beta and the portion of the total risk that is market risk. These betas might provide better estimates of costs of equity for undiversified owners of private businesses.        

Costs of Capital by Industry Sector

Costs of equity, costs of debt, market debt ratios and costs of capital by industrial grouping.        

Tax rate by Industry        

Average efective tax rate for all firms in each sector ,as well as for only money making firms.        

Dollar Value Meaures by Industry

Aggregated dollar values in millions of US$ of market capitalization in recent periods, with percentage changes in aggregate capitalziation, by industry.        

Market Capitalization by Industry        

Aggregated dollar values in millions of US $ for market capitalization/enterprise value, as well as operating and profitability measures - revenues, gross profit, EBITDA, operating and net income in 2020 (the COVID damage year) and 2021 (the recovery year).        

Employee Statistics by Industry        

For companies that report employee count, revenues and market cap, by employee; for all firms, stock-based compensation in dollar terms and as percent of revenues.        

EVA and Equity EVA by Industry

Average excess returns (return on invested capital minus cost of capital, return on equity minus cost of equity), economic value added and equity economic value added by industry sector.        

Debt Details (Type of debt, short or long term)        

Breaks down debt into lease debt and regular debt, short term and long term and interest expenses.

Debt Ratio Trade Off Variables by Industry

Market debt ratio, the effective tax rate (tax benefit), insider holdings (discipline), variance in operating income (bankruptcy risk) and fixed assets to total assets (agency costs).        

Operating Lease adjusted values for debt, returns and earnings

Summarizes the impact of converting operating lease commitments into debt on market debt to capital ratios, operating income, margins and return on capital, categorized by industry.        

Dividends versus FCFE        

Dividends and Free Cash Flows to Equity, i.e., cash flows left over after taxes, reinvestment needs and debt payments (FCFE), by industry        

Dividend Policy Trade Off Variables by Industry

Dividend yield and payout ratios, as well as other variables that might be relevant in examining the trade off involved in paying dividends.        

Capital Expenditures, Depreciation, Reinvestment Rate and Sales to Capital Ratios by Industry

Aggregated capital expenditures and depreciation by industry sector, as a percent of operating income (reinvestment rate) and scaled to revenues (sales to capital ratio). It is a useful resource on how much companies in a sector are reinvesting, in their attempt to keep growing.        

R&D Expenditures        

Looks at current and past (last five years) R&D expenses as well as my estimate of capitalized R&D, with effects on earnings and invested capital.        

Goodwill and Impairment        

Looks at the most useless and damaging of accounting items, goodwill, in magnitude, changes and impairment. If nothing else, it gives you a measure of both how active companies have been on the M&A front and how much they have paid on these acquisitions.        

Operating and Net Margins by Industry Sector

This reports gross, pre-tax operating and net profit margins by industry sector for the most recent time period.        

Financing Flows by Sector        

Looks at financing flows to & from equity (dividends, buybacks & issuances) and to and from debt (debt repaid and debt raised)        

Working Capital Requirements by Industry Sector

This lists out inventory, accounts receivable, accounts payable and non-cash working capital by industry sector, as a percent of revenues.        

Return on Equity decomposition by Industry sector:

This data set reports return on equity (net income/book value of equity) by industry grouping and decomposes these returns into a pure return on capital and a leverage effect.        

Fundamental Growth Rate in EPS by Industry

This data set summarizes growth rates from fundamentals (ROE * Retention Ratio) by industry group, reflecting what these companies can grow earnings per share at in steady state, if margins don't change.        

Historical Growth Rate in Earnings by Industry

This data set summarizes historical growth in earnings and revenues, over the last 5 years, by industry.        

Fundamental Growth Rate in EBIT by Industry

This data set summarizes growth rates from fundamentals (ROC*Reinvestment Rate) by industry group, reflecting what these companies can grow operating income at in steady state, if margins don't change        

PE Ratios, PEG Ratios and Expected Growth Rates by Industry Sector

This lists out the PE ratio, expected growth (Value Line) and the PE/growth by industry group for the most recent time period.        

Price and Enterprise Value to Book Ratios and ROE by Industry Sector

This lists outs Price/Book and EV/Invested Capital ratios and ROE/ROIC by industry group for the most recent time period.        

Enterprise Value/EBIT &Enterprise Value/EBITDA Multiples by Industry Sector

This lists out Enterprise Value multiples (of EBIT nd EBITDA) by industry group for the most recent time period.        

Option Pricing Models-Firm Value and EquityValue Standard Deviations (for use in real option pricing models)

This lists out average annualized stock price variance (in daily stock prices) over the previous five years, and the average standard deviation in firm value over the same period.        

TLDR: Summary and Investment Opportunities for 2024:

  1. High Insider Ownership: Sectors like Healthcare Products and Homebuilding display high CEO and insider ownership. This might pose risks for minority shareholders but also indicates potential for strong control and direction from insiders.
  2. Institutional Influence in Power Industry: The high institutional holdings suggest significant influence on corporate policies and governance, potentially leading to more strategic decision-making.
  3. Banking and Insurance Sectors: Low CEO holdings might affect alignment with shareholder interests. This could impact company performance and shareholder returns.
  4. Software (Internet) Sector: High CEO holdings suggest strong alignment with shareholder returns and potential for entrepreneurial risk-taking. This could be an attractive sector for investors looking for growth and innovation-driven companies.
  5. Diverse Ownership Structures: Varied structures across industries like Cable TV and Software (Internet) indicate different investment dynamics and risk profiles.
  6. Semiconductors and Technology: Low institutional holdings might imply less oversight. However, high volatility in these sectors suggests potential for high rewards albeit with higher risks.
  7. Healthcare and Software Risks: High insider holdings could lead to decisions favoring insiders. Investors should be cautious but also consider the potential for strong directional leadership.
  8. Discount Rate Estimation: Variation in betas across industries highlights different risk levels. Sectors like Semiconductors and Pharmaceuticals are more volatile, whereas Food Processing shows stability.
  9. Cost of Capital by Industry: Varies significantly. Software (Internet) has a low cost of equity, while Precious Metals have a high cost, affecting investment attractiveness.
  10. Tax Rate by Industry: Varies widely, impacting net profitability. Sectors like Pharmaceuticals face high tax burdens, while Software enjoys lower rates.
  11. Market Capitalization and Growth: Advertising and Aerospace/Defense sectors showed significant growth, indicating potential investment opportunities.
  12. Employee Statistics: High market value per employee in tech sectors suggests high productivity and growth potential.
  13. EVA and Equity EVA: Industries like Pharmaceuticals and Computer Services show significant Equity EVA, indicating strong value generation for equity investors.
  14. Debt Details: Aerospace/Defense and Insurance sectors show high leverage, requiring careful risk assessment.
  15. Dividends vs FCFE: Tobacco and Computer Services sectors show high dividend payouts and buybacks, appealing to income-focused investors.
  16. Capital Expenditures and R&D: Sectors like Green & Renewable Energy and Biotechnology show high investment, indicating growth and innovation focus.

Investment Strategy Recommendations for 2024:

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